Morgan Stanley reckons humanoid robots will form a $5trillion market by 2050. The bulk will be chained to the factory floor. But a reasonable chunk of the market will form around consumer use. They reckon 10% of US households may have a humanoid robot doing the laundry in just a few short decades.
In our recent podcast, we explored the pros and cons of humanoid robots in domestic environments. Concerns about over-anticipation fuelled by sci-fi films and the proverbial overkill a robot brings when a better washing machine would solve 99% of the problem carried the short interest. But for the long interest, the numbers are starting to stack up if humanoid robots develop to a reasonable extent, and reach consumers at a fair price point.
Households globally spend over $400bn in household services—cleaning, laundry, housekeeping—and that’s just the official part of the market. Unpaid work would see this stack up even higher. Opportunity cost, where a spouse has lower economic participation because they dedicate so much time to household work is also a contributor to a much higher number.
Security services hit $100bn globally, tutoring children $100bn, a few billion on babysitting services on top and a small portion of courier services $800bn a year sees a sizeable value proposition if humanoids can tackle some or all of these tasks.
Some bad maths, in which Morgan Stanley’s 10% of households is rolled out globally and we’re looking at $70bn of paid-for household tasks flowing to humanoid robots. The number is likely larger given those who are most likely to be able to afford a humanoid robot are also the greatest consumers of paid for household services.
We’re also just looking at core household services in this analysis. Folding in the $1trillion spent on eldercare and $400bn on childcare—largely funded across, individuals, private insurance, and public bodies—and the numbers climb higher still.
According to our tech tracker, the short interest has it for now. Robotics (a larger spread of technologies including humanoids) is constrained to the Hype Trap. But if the large numbers of innovators in the field can bring a robust offering to market, the value proposition may see humanoid robots become bounce up to the Momentum Zone.
