September has been challenging for most of the technologies we monitor, with builder conviction generally on the decline. Notably, 3D printing dropped sharply from the momentum zone, while cloud technology returned to its previous position after last month’s surge in builder conviction.
Widespread concerns about AI investment potentially becoming unsustainable are shaping sentiment across the board. Frothy investment in the tech poses a double risk: drawing capital away from the broader tech market and creating a massive bubble that’s ready to pop. Many main-stream publications now question the safety of the AI investment binge, and even central governments have started issuing warnings to investors (we’ve been calling this out for months now, but whatevs).
Cloud floats alone in the Momentum Zone
AI hype may be eating the world, but established technologies like cloud computing remain fundamental drivers of the modern economy. To this end, despite brief companionship from 3D printing in the previous couple of months, Cloud once again floats alone in the Momentum Zone. Public perception is consistently high for cloud, while builder conviction has a habit of flitting around based on new feature releases as well as discussions about broader industry risks, like the increase in data and infrastructure sovereignty on multiple national agendas.
Cloud is also back in vogue because of the sheer amount of cash flowing into the sector. Almost all of the big tech companies and AI megaliths have plans to collectively funnel trillions into data center development. A couple of big events this month, however, have pulled conviction back to earth. A fire destroying the South Korean government’s cloud storage system revealed the fragility of infrastructure when improperly managed (nobody thought to backup the data). Fully, 858 TB of government files and ‘eight years’ worth of work’ went up in smoke. Deeper technical discussions pulling conviction down further include concerns about technical monopolies amongst the large incumbent tech giants, and concerns about increased cloud costs.
AI loses momentum and slides back into the Hype Trap
With all the talk about an AI bubble, it’s unsurprising that AI has slipped back into the Hype Trap after a brief stay in the Momentum Zone. Although concerns about an AI bubble are now widespread, public perception has only slightly declined; however, builders’ confidence has dropped sharply. This shift largely stems from growing disillusionment with the hype, as builders themselves question whether the AI solutions they’re developing truly measure up.
Generative AI is experiencing a similar pattern, though public enthusiasm for it is lower compared to AI overall. It has become a staple topic among skeptics. Among builders, worries about “vibe coding” and engineering standards highlight where resistance is growing within their community. Connecting the divide between waning public interest and builder skepticism are issues related to AI misuse. Examples include a major consultancy mishandling a report for the Australian government, a California lawyer being fined over fabricated ChatGPT content, and appeals from the great and good, including Robin Williams’ daughter, asking people to cool it with AI representations.
Quantum perilously close to the Momentum Zone
In other news, Quantum computing, a long-standing Hidden Gem, lusted after by builders but seeing little public momentum is now starting to make gains. Perhaps the most important story this month is the announcement from HSBC that they’ve just about cracked quantum-enabled algorithmic trading with their partner IBM, creating buzz that the complex and often incomprehensible technology will soon have real-world ramifications.
Investor chatter is also helping Quantum capture some much deserved limelight. Quantum computing companies IonQ, Rigetti, and D-Wave have been pumping 1000%+ returns even while AI has hoovered investor oxygen out of the room. Fresh bubble concerns aside, innovation in the tech continues to drive apace and fresh capital injections are welcome. Indeed, Harvard physicists recently demonstrated a 3,000 quantum-bit system capable of continuous operation. And the Nobel Prize in Physics was awarded to three scientists for their work on quantum mechanics that is paving the way for a new generation of very powerful computers.
At this rate, Cloud may not be alone in the momentum zone for long.
