In October, news coverage focused extensively on the impact of artificial intelligence on workforce reductions. Sam Altman contributed to the discourse by suggesting that most existing jobs are at risk of disappearing, emphasizing that many positions likely to be replaced by AI may not be considered ‘real’. Bill Gates also cautioned that AI could automate a significant volume of work, potentially resulting in a standard two-day workweek for most workers. Meanwhile, Jerome Powell, Chair of the US Federal Reserve, highlighted that current job creation rates are “pretty close to zero,” attributing much of this trend to advancements in AI.
While these developments are generally viewed as unfavorable, public sentiment remains divided. Many express concern over hiring freezes and the highly challenging employment landscape, especially for recent graduates. However, some observers note potential benefits such as reduced working hours and increased socioeconomic progress, following prolonged periods of stagnation.
AWS shortage and over-investment worries drag on cloud
Meanwhile, for cloud, the naysayers are gaining ground. Confidence in cloud computing took a sharp hit after a major AWS outage temporarily disrupted large portions of the internet. This incident affected thousands of companies and millions of users, including high-profile sites and apps like Snapchat and Reddit. Roblox and Fortnite fans also found themselves briefly without access. Experts have pointed to this as an example of the folly of so much of our digital economy depending on a single provider. Others highlight that most companies have little alternative, noting that only Microsoft and Google are anywhere near approaching AWS’ scale.
Meanwhile, cloud providers are also coming under growing scrutiny amid the explosive growth of AI infrastructure, with trillions of dollars touted as necessary to keep pace. In some circles, this rapid expansion is starting to draw comparisons to the beginnings of a Ponzi scheme.
Quantum sneaks into the momentum zone
In the September review, it was noted that Quantum appeared to be progressing towards the momentum zone in response to increasingly favourable public sentiment. Happily our bet paid off and Quantum is now officially a resident of the quadrant following a significant announcement from Google.
Google revealed that their Willow quantum chip has successfully executed the first algorithm to demonstrate verifiable quantum advantage on hardware. Google Quantum AI founder and lead Hartmut Neven and director of quantum pathfinding Vadim Smelyanskiy wrote that they “…demonstrated the first-ever verifiable quantum advantage running the out-of-order time correlator (OTOC) algorithm, which we call Quantum Echoes.” This marks the first time that any quantum computer has run an algorithm that can be verified as outperforming supercomputers, according to the experts.
Nanotechnology runs off the conviction scales
Finally, a series of recent positive developments mean nanotechnology is approaching the upper end of our conviction score. Key news this month includes a research team at Northwestern University enhancing a standard chemotherapy drug by employing spherical nucleic acids, transforming it into a more potent and targeted cancer therapy. This modification significantly increased both drug absorption and efficacy against cancer cells while minimizing side effects.
According to researchers, this advancement may mark the beginning of a new era in precision nanomedicine for oncology and related fields. If expert conviction translates to positive public opinion, nanotechnologies could be in the Momentum Zone by year’s end.
