To say OpenAI’s latest foray into revenue generation is underwhelming might sound glib, but it marks a staggering retreat from the “wait for AGI and then we’ll have all the money” ethos we’ve been fed until now.
Watching the firm sprint through page one of the Big Tech playbook is both disappointing and entirely predictable. Generating ad revenue has long been the deus ex machina for tech’s most bloated ambitions. The Metaverse was supposed to sustain itself on digital billboards for digital people; even space travel looks set to be subsidized by logos plastered onto the “space wangers” of tech moguls as they breach the stratosphere.
But the real concern in this case isn’t the lack of ingenuity. It’s the lack of scale. Our trademark bad maths suggests that while selling out might yield big numbers, they aren’t nearly big enough to feed OpenAI’s voracious spending habits
As a test, we’ve taken two of the biggest beneficiaries of digital advertising and run the numbers. Meta, with 3.5 billion daily users, generates approximately $65 billion in annual ad revenue, translating to about $18 per user per year. Google converts its 5 billion daily users into nearly $265 billion, or $52 per user annually. Applying a similar calculation to ChatGPT, which boasts 193 million daily users, projects an annual revenue between $3 billion and $10 billion.
Even if we pivot from users to volume, the story remains bleak. Google reaches its $265 billion jackpot by processing roughly 5 trillion searches annually, netting around $0.05 per query. ChatGPT handles a comparatively trifling 900 billion prompts. At Google’s efficiency, that generates just $45 billion.
For any other startup, a $45 billion revenue stream would be a triumph. But for a company that has spent years positioning itself as the spearhead of a world changing movement—and one that keeps demanding trillions for infrastructure—experimenting with ads feels like a desperate lateral move rather than an evolution.
When you’ve promised to rewrite the laws of the economy, ending up as just another digital billboard salesperson isn’t just a pivot; it’s a comedown.
